As far as fall weather goes in Upstate New York, this week has been just about perfect and could not be timed better with peak foliage for many towns. But with the beauty of fall comes the looming threat of winter weather.

Most of us are in no hurry to get to the “bone-chilling” temperatures and unusually high snowfall several outlets have predicted for Winter 2022/2023. As of tomorrow, we could be getting started on frigid weather sooner than expected with a “potent cold front” that could bring some very unwanted weather with it.

Heavy Fall Chill

The NWS Albany is forecasting hazardous weather for Upstate NY.
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The National Weather Service office out of Albany has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Capital Region and most of Upstate New York for Thursday the 13th. After the beautiful weather we’ve been having this week, it’s a real pity to have storms sweep through.

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A large sweep of cold air is bringing in lower temperatures, but also heavy precipitation. The NWS is forecasting several inches of rain for the region that could cause flooding in cities and lower, flood-prone areas. Flash flooding on roadways is also a risk. This will last all of Thursday into the evening.

A potent cold front will bring a moderate to heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms to all of eastern New York and western New England Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, along with gusty winds. Some flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible, along with localized flash flooding.

Along with the existing flooding risk, NWS Albany highlights certain counties for more severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a portion of the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, and western Greene and Ulster Counties within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

Don’t cancel your weekend apple-picking and haunted hayrides just yet, though. Sunshine is forecasted to return Friday and Saturday, albeit at cooler temps. Those temps will only get cooler as the week goes on – the Capital Region could get its first true freeze of the year next Wednesday the 19th.

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