First Flakes of Winter May Come Sooner Than You Think in New York

Looks like winter 2024 is getting ready for a very early start in New York State.

We're starting to see early projections about what kind of winter to expect this year. The tone is already being set with one cold-front in the month of August, and that could be possibly followed by another by month's end.

Read More: 2nd Cold Front, Early Labor Day Frost Predicted for New York 

This comes after the Farmer's Almanac issued its prediction for all things snow and cold. This year, it warned, "Brace yourself for a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little downtime in between."

Another outlet, SnowBrains, also issued its winter outlook for 2024-25. The ski enthusiast website used data from NOAA and other weather maps to come up with its winter sports prediction:

The East Coast, particularly the northern parts, may also see increased snowfall due to above-normal precipitation forecasts, offering potential opportunities for winter sports in those regions.

The reason why we are on track to see higher amounts of snow this winter is due to La Niña forming, which reduces temperatures and triggers above-average precipitation.

That promise of abundant snowfall, along with the early onset of fall-like temperatures this month, is raising suspicions the first flakes of the season will come a lot sooner than expected.

SnowChance is out with its wintry predictions and says Utica could see snowfall by this November. The snow tracker anticipates a winter storm in the area on November 6, which could produce rain, snow, and sleet.

As for when Utica could see its first snow storm; that could be as early as November 17. The outlet says the area has a 71% chance of being hit by a snow storm, and the likelihood jumps to 80% the next day.

This seems to be the opposite of what we've seen in recent years. Just this last winter, Central New York didn't see its first measurable snow until the first week of January.

When it comes to the last snow of the season, the outlet places a 79% chance of a winter storm striking the area on April 4, 2025.

This isn't all that shocking because last season, roughly a foot of snow was dumped across Central New York on March 23.

Early snows are not a new phenomenon in New York. There have been times where its timing bordered on the side of insanity.  The earliest snowfall to hit the state was back in 1956, when Rochester and Buffalo reported snowfall on September 20th.

For Central New York, the earliest snowfall to date was reported on October 1, 1946, according to Spectrum.

Speaking of super early snow, who could forget the "Halloween nor'easter" of 2011, which dumped nearly 2-feet on New York?

As for this year, it's still too early to tell just how early the first snowfall will be in New York. Weather is always fluctuating and new systems can develop, which can change the entire forecast.

But as a snow lover, I'm remaining hopeful. I would love to see a more "traditional" winter. It's been a while since I have skated on a frozen pond or built a ridiculously large snowman.

Here's hoping we will get more life out of our skis, ice skates, and sleds this year.

What do you hope this winter brings? More importantly, when do you think we'll see the first snow of the season? Give us a shout using the station app below:

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